11 minute read

May 2026

The Cost of Coming in Second in Clinical Trials

Author

Helen Albert is a Berlin-based science journalist specializing in healthcare, life sciences, bioanthropology, biotechnology, and innovation. She has served as Editor-in-Chief for Labiotech, Editor of The Biochemist, and Senior Reporter at Springer Nature’s medwireNews. Her work has appeared in leading international publications, including Nature, New Scientist, Forbes, The BMJ, and Chemistry World.

 

You have a late‑stage treatment that looks like a winner. The data is strong, the unmet need is clear, yet all investors and board members want to know is whether you can bring it to market before a rival developing a similar product. In today’s biopharma market, the difference between being first and second to launch can mean billions in lost revenue, regardless of how good your science is.

 

 

In early 2020, BioNTech launched Project Lightspeed to develop SARS‑CoV‑2 mRNA vaccine candidates in response to the emerging pandemic. Partnering early on with Pfizer, the German biotech went from early research to accelerated approval in only nine months, beating its US competitor Moderna to market by a few weeks.

Although BioNTech and Moderna both had high-quality research and similar science, the estimated income for Pfizer/BioNTech associated with the COVID-19 vaccines was US $80 billion in cumulative sales versus around $45 billion for Moderna. Only a few weeks separated the approvals, but because BioNTech and Pfizer were first, their vaccine became the default option for many early national campaigns and contracts.

The Need for Speed

Most clinical trials are not developed under pandemic conditions, of course, but the principles are similar, and timing has become “make or break” in the clinical trials space. According to Arthur D. Little (ADL) analysis of first-in-class oncology assets, first movers can capture up to 60% of market share within a few years of product launch (see ADL Viewpoint “Smarter Bets, Stronger Clinical Trials”).

“More than ever, industry value is shaped by time advantage: compressing R&D timelines to create meaningful distance from competitors while maximizing the duration of commercial exclusivity under patent,” says Ben Enejo, Partner in ADL’s Healthcare & Life Sciences practice.

Despite this — delays remain common, and clinical trials are, on average, getting longer rather than shorter. Several factors are influencing the length and criticality of trials.

First, the number of trials continues to grow, with many companies pursuing the same targets. At the same time, a wave of important patents is set to expire between 2025–2030, putting pressure on drug makers to develop new drug candidates before the shock of this large patent cliff hits the industry (see ADL Viewpoint “The Future of Pharma Growth”).

Second, the 2022 US Inflation Reduction Act introduces price controls for small-molecule drugs after nine years on the market. As a result, companies may face pricing pressure before fully recouping their investment, making faster time to market even more valuable.

Third, legacy pharma companies must compete with AI-based startups that are cutting years from drug development through more accurate early target and drug selection, improved patient recruitment, and fewer preclinical trial failures (e.g., Insilico Medicine’s use of generative AI to develop a treatment for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis).

“The battle is no longer just against big players; it’s with these newcomers that can move incredibly fast using AI,” says Enejo. “AI is here to stay — I think the future is going to be one where high-dimensional, real-world data is going to be used as a baseline for testing assumptions and decision making.”

Biopharmas of all sizes must keep up with this new technology to avoid being left behind.

 

Needed: A Holistic Approach

There’s no question that biopharmas understand the need to complete clinical trials as quickly as possible, so why is this goal such a challenge? Enejo says many companies still treat clinical execution as a functional challenge rather than a board-level priority. The solution, he says, is a holistic approach that includes better alignment of R&D with enterprise strategy, more strategic use of data and analytics, and more integrated governance.

Strategy

Pivotal clinical trials planning must take place at both the senior leadership and board level as well as the execution management level. “Accelerating trials is not just about improving patient recruitment, patient retention, or data management,” says Enejo. “It’s about making highly informed decisions about trade-offs and aligning all relevant facets of [the] organization to the success of the program.” (For a deeper look at how patient-centric insights improve clinical development decisions, see PRISM article “Why Patient-Centricity Is Key to Long-Term Pharma Company Success.”)

Embracing stakeholder capitalism by aligning business and clinical trial strategies with external stakeholder needs is key to accelerating better outcomes. For example, Ali Pashazadeh, founder and CEO of Treehill Partners, a specialist healthcare-focused strategic and financial advisory firm, says his team was approached by a company with a really interesting technology.

“There were clear signs it could work, but we could tell immediately that the FDA [Food & Drug Administration] would put this product on hold if it was developed for the intended indication,” he says. “In another group of patients, we expected the FDA would be very supportive. We completely changed the pathway by which the company was going to develop that drug. What they had done at the early stages was correct, but they needed to think differently about how the FDA was going to respond and how patients would benefit in the future.” (To understand how regulatory strategy can accelerate timelines while maintaining rigorous oversight, see ADL Viewpoint “Faster Approvals, Smarter Oversight.”)

Data-Based Decision-Making

“Most biopharma companies are data-rich but insightful-decision-poor,” says Shreya Modi, a Principal in ADL’s Healthcare & Life Sciences practice. She advocates for always getting an external view on the process and says the vast array of data collected by companies about clinical trials should be used more consistently to support decision-making. “That way, teams don’t rely on assumptions based on anecdotal knowledge. There is a wealth of data that can be leveraged. The key is to clearly identify and align on the problem to be solved and then use the data meaningfully to address it,” she says.

Competition is a useful example, as it is often viewed as a threat to patient recruitment. In reality, the situation is more nuanced. “From our work in geolocation-based competitive-impact analysis, we’ve seen cases where colocated ‘competing’ trials actually outperform expectations,” says Modi. “In one uncommon disease trial-acceleration effort, sites running four to five similar studies delivered the strongest recruitment results.” The reason is that density drives momentum. These sites benefit from established referral pathways, stronger patient awareness, and informal collaboration across programs. “Instead of fragmenting the pool, proximity can activate it,” she adds.

Modi also emphasizes the importance of predictive intelligence over all-too-common lagging indicators. High-quality data analysis helps clinical trial sponsors better predict potentially delaying events so they can correct them early.

“We aim to pick up signals as early as possible and act decisively. If it turns out to be a real issue, we’re already ahead of it. If not, the downside is minimal — just a few days of effort or dollars spent,” Enejo says. “Too often, the industry waits for signals to become obvious before acting. We work with companies to shift that mindset toward earlier, more proactive intervention.”

Too often, the industry waits for signals to become obvious before acting

Governance

Keeping track of competing trials, evolving regulations, and studies taking place across multiple sites — often in different countries — is difficult. Compounding the challenge, different teams are frequently responsible for different parts of the trial process, and communication between them is not always effective. Ultimately, clinical trials need leadership that can move at the speed of change.

“All these leadership decisions are based on changes within the landscape, and they need to happen fast because every day, every hour, every week changes the landscape when you are recruiting patients for your trial,” says Ron Kwok, Partner in ADL’s Healthcare & Life Sciences practice.

For example, a new trial may be published or a new drug approved that changes the standard of care six months into your trial — while patient recruitment is still underway. That creates an ethical dilemma: patients in the control group should receive the best available treatment, even if that treatment is no longer the one being used in your trial.

The solution to challenges like these — and to the broader need to accelerate trials — is to appoint a senior-level person to oversee the entire clinical trial process. This structure also helps strengthen alignment between R&D and the company’s broader strategic goals. To succeed in the role, that person must have both the bandwidth to manage the complexity and the authority to drive value across the organization.

“Many times, there is no one person saying, ‘OK, how do we make this a much more efficient process so that instead of taking three years, we take two and a half years?’” says Emmanuel Aisabokhae, Principal in ADL’s Healthcare & Life Science practice. “For example, the clinical scientist’s job is to design the protocol, and their focus is probably on scientific robustness. They’re not necessarily thinking about designing a protocol that makes recruiting as fast as possible.”

 

Clinical trials need leadership that can move at the speed of change

Speed Equals Strategic Positioning

To minimize strategic losses, time to value must become a board-level priority. Clinical trial durations can be reduced, but only by looking at the bigger picture and going beyond simple improvements in patient recruitment or data management.

Indeed, if biopharmas want to increase time to value, they must find a way to institutionalize speed. “If you don’t get in before everyone else, you see a significant drop in returns,” says Enejo. “Speed is directly equivalent to strategic positioning. It’s no longer about efficiency or R&D milestones. I think speed now determines whether you get to the market at all.” (To explore how faster clinical development can translate into meaningful patient and societal impact, see ADL Viewpoint “Accelerating Cures.”)

 

Risky Business

Time is not on biopharma’s side. The 20-year patent term for drugs and therapies creates a narrow window to develop treatments, secure market approval, and maximize revenue from a product before exclusivity expires.

“It may take 10-12 years just to get through all the regulatory requirements,” says Aisabokhae. “Whatever is left, that’s the time you have to commercialize and extract value.”

It takes most products at least nine years to secure market approval, so the revenue-generation phase is often less than 10 years. That’s assuming the drug makes it to market — estimates suggest only about 8% of drug candidates make it all the way from Phase I to approval.

“A huge amount of investment goes into these drugs. It can cost up to $2 billion to bring a drug to market, and most drugs fail,” explains Enejo. “Most drugs do not make it to market, so value becomes more precious in a very limited window.”

For therapies that reach approval, even a single day of delay in market access can cost a company up to $800,000 in lost sales.

 

Speed is directly equivalent to strategic positioning; it’s no longer about efficiency or R&D milestones

Key Takeaways

  1. Elevate clinical trial planning to the board level to accelerate time to value, with stronger governance and alignment to overall R&D strategy.
  2. Strengthen internal communication to break down silos and enable more strategic, collaborative decision-making.
  3. Bring an external, data-driven perspective to governance and key trial decisions.
  4. Treat speed as a core strategic differentiator.
  5. Use predictive intelligence and leading indicators to identify risks early and act proactively.
  6. Leverage AI to accelerate time to market.